Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Copper Price Forecasting (2013 Update)

In a 2012 post we looked at the copper price forecasts of Cochilco since 2005. To do so we looked at the "Informe Trmestral del Mercado de Cobre" which is published on a quarterly basis.

The following graph shows the development of the forecasted copper price (or rather the deviation from the ex-post price) as a function of the number of days before the end of the period for which the forecast was made.

Separately we show an update of the graph we already showed in last year´s post comparing the deviation of the forecasted price made 18 months before the end of the forecasted period with the spot price at the forecasting date.

2012 was a relatively good year with a relatively small forecasting error, undoubtedely assited by relatively low volatility of copper price and the absence of large price movements

Monday, June 10, 2013

Metal and Ore Exports (as a percentage of exports) 1988 to 2010

The Worldbank has nifty page allowing to plot numerous trade related data points:
The World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) is a software developed by the world Bank, in close collaboration and consultation with various International Organizations including United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), International Trade Center (ITC), United Nations Statistical Division (UNSD) and World Trade Organization (WTO). WITS gives you access to major international trade, tariffs and non-tariff data compilations:
  • The UN COMTRADE database maintained by the UNSD: Exports and imports by detailed commodity and partner country
  • The TRAINS maintained by the UNCTAD: Imports, Tariffs, Para-Tariffs & Non-Tariff Measures at national tariff level
  • The IDB and CTS databases maintained by the WTO: MFN Applied, Preferential & Bound Tariffs at national tariff level
WITS is a data consultation and extraction software with simulation capabilities. WITS is a free software. However, access to databases themselves can be fee-charging or limited depending on your status. WITS is a system that is still evolving and we will be adding more features. In subsequent releases of WITS we plan to provide additional features including coupling with ITC's MACMAP system.
We used WITS to plot the share of metals and ore exports as a percentage of total exports for the ten largest copper exporters. Zambia followed by Chile and Peru lead this metric through the whole period (1988 to 2010).