Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Copper Price Forecasting (2013 Update)

In a 2012 post we looked at the copper price forecasts of Cochilco since 2005. To do so we looked at the "Informe Trmestral del Mercado de Cobre" which is published on a quarterly basis.

The following graph shows the development of the forecasted copper price (or rather the deviation from the ex-post price) as a function of the number of days before the end of the period for which the forecast was made.

Separately we show an update of the graph we already showed in last year´s post comparing the deviation of the forecasted price made 18 months before the end of the forecasted period with the spot price at the forecasting date.

2012 was a relatively good year with a relatively small forecasting error, undoubtedely assited by relatively low volatility of copper price and the absence of large price movements

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