Copper Price Forecasts by Cochilco (2014 Update)

This is the third post in a series (2013, 2012) of Cochilco's copper price forecasting. Their quarterly forecasts can be found here.

As in previous years we compare
a) the deviation of the effective (average) copper price for a given year and and the spot price six months before the beginning of such year, with
b) the Cochilco forecast for the (average) copper price for a given year made six months before the beginning of such year and and the spot price six months before the beginning of such year

As can be seen in the graph there has been less volatility and Cochilco has been able to forecast the right direction for the last four years. Additionally and as typical for forecast the magnitude of the forecast is generally significantly underestimated.